[FL4RonPaul] FW: Ron Paul Revolution Halftime Report (fwd)

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Date: Thu, 21 Jun 2007 11:03:37 -0400
From: Henry Morgan <henrymorgan@knology.net>
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To: FREEDOM FORWARDS <henrymorgan@knology.net>
Subject: [FL4RonPaul] FW: Ron Paul Revolution Halftime Report

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the whole truth; to know the worst, and provide for it. ~ ~ ~ Patrick
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From: lou & dr. bob at lake tahoe [mailto:bobalou@wynman.com]
Sent: Thursday, June 21, 2007 10:38 AM
To: Lou Wynman
Subject: Ron Paul Revolution Halftime Report

Here are some sound reasons why Dr. Ron Paul CAN win this Presidential
election ... with our help ... & the help of your friends:

--bob & lou
www.wynman.com <http://www.wynman.com/>

Ron Paul Revolution Halftime Report

by James Ostrowski <http://jimostrowski.com/>
by James Ostrowski

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In terms of his pursuit of the Republican nomination, it's already halftime
for the Ron Paul <http://www.rescue-us.org/ronpaulrevolutionhome.htm>
Revolution. He announced his campaign in January and by February the
nomination will likely be decided. It's true that most of the country is not
paying any attention but that misses the point, as do polls showing Ron Paul
with just a few points in the national polls. By the time most of the
country starts paying attention, the contest for the nomination will be
over.

When I learned that Ron Paul was running, I carefully analyzed the race and
concluded "the Ron Paul campaign could be a political
<http://www.lewrockwell.com/ostrowski/ostrowski80.html> earthquake,"
explained why he can
<http://blog.lewrockwell.com/lewrw/archives/012378.html> win, and called him
Hillary Clinton's worst
<http://blog.lewrockwell.com/lewrw/archives/012082.html> nightmare. People
unaware of my long-time status as a political junkie and amateur (unpaid)
analyst accused me of hubris or wishful thinking. No, I was just trying to
predict the course of events as I did with a primitive blog on the 2004
campaign.

Leaving the nomination aside for a moment, isn't it crazy to think that Ron
can win in November? My father always told me, "every election is a choice."
You can't vote "yes" or "no." It's always some candidate against another
candidate. Long before Ron Paul entered the race, I was firmly convinced
that Hillary would be the Democratic nominee. I even coined a term for those
who can't accept that possibility: Hillary denial
<http://blog.jimostrowski.com/?p=657> . Hillary has done very well in the
debates while Obama has been quite average if you ask me. My father, a
college debate champion, saw Hillary speak many years ago and was very
impressed by her communication skills. In my view, the only candidate who
can seriously challenge Hillary is Bill Richardson and he just won't be able
to do it. He'll settle for VP. Obama has lost his initial luster in part
because Ron Paul has suddenly become the favored candidate of those who want
real change, something really new. In Texas parlance, Obama is "all hat, no
cattle." Pencil in Hillary for November.

As I said before, anyone who runs against Hillary starts with 45 percent of
the vote just on general principles. Ron Paul can pick up those last five
points by outflanking Hillary "from the left" on the Iraq War, drug war,
monetary populism and opposition to the corporate state and the military
industrial complex. His experience practicing medicine both before and after
Medicare/Medicaid will allow him to checkmate Hillary on her key domestic
issue. We already know he'll hammer her on her support for the war. So, Ron
will best Hillary on the key foreign policy issue and a key domestic policy
issue. Perhaps Hillary will score points on extraterrestrial policy issues.
Ron is indeed Hillary's worst nightmare.

Now, let's back up and talk about the Republican nomination. My initial
concern was whether Ron would be included in the debates. I was confident
that a series of debates would reveal him to be "a man of substance versus a
number of shallow sloganeers." That has in fact occurred, particularly in
the second debate which gave Ron more time and better questions to work
with. There is no way at this point that Ron can be excluded from future
debates. So, expect him to continue to pummel his opponents with his real
world experience and encyclopedic command of issues, economics, and history.
One thinks of Patton's famous speech: "My God, I actually pity those poor
bastards we're going up against. My God, I do."

Another factor in my initial analysis was the deeply flawed nature of Ron's
major opponents: McCain, Romney and Giuliani
<http://www.lewrockwell.com/ostrowski/ostrowski61.html> . Since Fred
Thompson is being quickly rushed into the race, even mainstream Republicans
now recognize that none of the Big Three will lead them to the Promised
Land. Out of the Big Three, McCain at least has an ounce or two of
integrity. The other two are political chameleons who will say virtually
anything to gain power, and have! Fred Thompson is a more formidable
candidate to be sure, but he is not without problems himself. Expect the
pre-candidate glow to fade quickly as the honeymoon ends and the marriage
begins. He is pro-war, has few specific ideas about anything and he lobbied
for Jean-Bertrand <http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion?pid=191816>
Aristide. As Ricky Ricardo would say, Fred has some splaining to do. Fred's
big problem is that at a time of great dissatisfaction with the status quo,
he has been a player in the Republican establishment since the early 1970's,
just what the doctor did not order.

Douglas Turner <http://www.buffalonews.com/246/story/101238.html>
brilliantly skewered Fred Thompson on Monday:

Thompson, a 6-foot-5-inch television character actor who manages 'gravitas'
but offers little else, gave his views on Iraq in a staged interview shopped
around the Internet by the conservative Hoover Institution. Former Sen.
Thompson of Tennessee, trying to look like Ronald Reagan but sounding like
Lyndon Johnson, pledged himself to endless war. We have to worry about
American prestige "in that part of the world," and how it would be damaged
by a pullout, Thompson said, echoing Johnson's worries about dominoes in
Southeast Asia. Thompson airily claimed that two friends have sons in Iraq
and that they are sending home e-mails filled with optimism about conditions
there. If they're happy, "I've got optimism and hope," he said last week.
Acts of terrorism there have risen to 1,000 a week. "We must take every
opportunity and exhaust every reasonable hope that we have to not lose
there," said Thompson, an undeclared candidate nudging Giuliani as a GOP
favorite in some polls. . . . Fred Thompson had a brief and undistinguished
record in the Senate but bears himself as one burdened with deep thoughts.

Fred Thompson actually helps Ron Paul. Ron is already the only antiwar
Republican. Fred Thompson further splits the pro-war vote to Ron's obvious
benefit. Now, let's factor in the unintended consequences of the power
elite's efforts to thwart populist candidates. For a long time, many
Republican delegates have been selected in winner-take-all fashion, either
statewide or in each congressional district. Also, this year, the power
elite has frontloaded the primaries to favor of establishment candidates
such as Rudy. Alas, they have outsmarted themselves this year, a mistake
that may prove fatal to them. With the first series of primaries only months
away, there simply isn't time for weaker candidates to lose big, run out of
money and quit. Most second-tier vanity candidates will stay in the race.
With 11 candidates splitting the vote, Ron Paul could win early primaries
and loads of delegates with just twenty percent of the vote. Fred Thompson's
imminent announcement helps Ron Paul, thank him very much. The stars are
aligning perfectly for the Ron Paul Revolution.

<http://www.lewrockwell.com/ostrowski/colbert.jpg> Ultimately, Ron Paul
will begin to gain support even from those Republicans who disagree with his
foreign policy views when the grim truth sinks in. As the only antiwar
Republican, he is the only Republican who can beat Hillary in November.

There is a critical subplot in the Ron Paul Revolution. I said early on that
Ron can win because he will be the candidate of the internet. Well, the
"internet primary" is already over. This is quickly becoming a battle
between the new media – the internet and unconventional TV shows such as
Bill Maher, the Daily Show and Colbert Report – and the old media. After
being forced to cover Ron during the debates, the old mainstream media,
except for a story last week in the Washington Post, is again pretending he
doesn't exist. The truly fascinating thing about this Revolution is that it
is simultaneously a velvet revolution against the political establishment
and against its partner in crime, the mainstream media. This should be no
surprise. The relation between big government and big media, the
media-government complex, has been way too cozy for way too long. Tim
Russert, who ignores Ron Paul, made his bones as a soldier for the
Democratic machine in Buffalo, then parlayed his jobs with Mario Cuomo and
Daniel Moynihan into a gig at NBC
<http://backissues.cjrarchives.org/year/92/5/russert.asp> . Chris Matthews,
who dissed Ron Paul at the first debate and largely ignores him on his
(otherwise pretty good) show, used to work for Tip O'Neil. And it is well
known that the door swings the other way as Tony Snow and many other
examples show. Big government; big media; what's the difference in corporate
state America? As the Ron Paul campaign shows, not much.

Skeptics point to national "scientific" polls that show Ron with 1–3%
support. These are fairly meaningless at this point. What matters is not
national polls, but polls in the first states to be contested, Iowa and New
Hampshire. Second, there is reason to believe that much of Ron's support is
not being counted. Pollsters tend not to question people who haven't voted
recently or who don't have a landline. For Ron to be at three
<http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/primary2008_gopprim061207.pdf>
percent in New Hampshire at this point is really quite good in light of the
newness of his campaign and his slight expenditure of resources thus far. I
see him creeping up slowly to ten or fifteen before the end of the year, in
very good shape for the stretch run. History shows that one or two wins or
strong showings can instantly boost polling numbers across the country. Ron
must do well in the first three or four states, but if he does, things will
take care of themselves poll-wise.

I said that the Ron Paul campaign could be a political earthquake. The clues
are all there: young people and people previously not politically active are
forming the core of his support; he is drawing support from the left and the
right; Democrats for Paul <http://thecrossedpond.com/?p=801> groups are
starting up; crowds are building and lies and smears are bouncing harmlessly
off Ron Paul like so many bullets off Superman's chest. In his recent media
appearances, Ron is in what great athletes call "the zone."

What makes an earthquake is pent-up energy suddenly unleashed with
tremendous force. A lot of problems that can only be addressed in a
Jeffersonian framework of peace and freedom have been festering for too long
in Hamiltonian America. A lot of people have been waiting a long time for a
Jeffersonian to run for president and they're going to make the most of it.

"There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on
to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and
in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the
current when it serves, or lose our ventures."

<http://www.lewrockwell.com/ostrowski/cleveland.jpg> Prediction: the
second half of the Ron Paul Revolution will be even more exciting than the
first half. The Republican establishment and the old media will find it
revolting.

You may now return to your regularly scheduled velvet revolution.

_____

I will have a more to say about the Ron Paul Revolution Thursday, June 21st,
at 12 noon at the Grover Cleveland Statue in front of City
<http://maps.google.com/maps?um=1&tab=wl&hl=en&q=buffalo%20city%20hall> Hall
in Buffalo, New York. The event will be filmed for You Tube to promote my
new radio show. If you're within driving distance of Buffalo that day and
you don't show up, you'll have some splaining to do.

June 19, 2007

James Ostrowski is an attorney in Buffalo, New York and author of Political
<http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0974925306/lewrockwell/>
Class Dismissed: Essays Against Politics,
<http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0974925306/lewrockwell/>
Including "What's Wrong With Buffalo." See his website
<http://freebuffalo.org/> .

Copyright © 2007 LewRockwell.com

<http://www.lewrockwell.com/ostrowski/ostrowski-arch.html> James Ostrowski
Archives <http://www.lewrockwell.com/dmccarthy/dmccarthy-arch.html>

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